Section 1859.42.1 - Supplements to the Fifth-Year Projection of Non-Special Day Class EnrollmentA district utilizing a fifth-year enrollment projection pursuant to Section 1859.42(a), except when reporting on a HSAA or Super HSAA basis pursuant to Section 1859.41.1(b), may supplement the enrollment projection with any of the following:
(a) The number of pupils as reported by the district on Form SAB 50-01, that will reside in dwelling units included in an approved and valid tentative or final subdivision map that exceed the number of pupils projected as a result of the cohort survival method for that tentative or final subdivision map. The augmentation shall be calculated as follows: (1) Calculate a first year projection by advancing the current enrollment as reported on Form SAB 50-01 by one year for each grade level without applying the average annual change. For kindergarten, the first year projection shall be the same as the reported current enrollment.(2) Subtract the current enrollment progressed one year for each grade level as determined in (1) from the one-year projection of enrollment for each grade level as determined in Section 1859.42(a). If the computation results in a negative number, the number shall be zero.(3) Divide the current enrollment progressed one year for each grade level by the sum of the current enrollment progressed one year in all grade levels.(4) Multiply the number of housing units in the approved and valid tentative or final subdivision maps by the pupil yield factor provided on the Form SAB 50-01.(5) Multiply the number of pupils determined in (4) by the percentages determined in (3) for each grade.(6) Subtract five times the value determined in (2) from the value determined in (5). If the computation results in a negative number, the number shall be zero.(7) Add the value in (6) to the fifth year of projected enrollment as computed in Section 1859.42(a) to establish the augmented projection of enrollment.(8) For districts with HSAA reporting, the augmentation as provided in this section may include only dwelling units located in the HSAA or Super HSAA.(b) The number of children born as reported on the Form SAB 50-01 that will attend kindergarten within the district or HSAA in the enrollment year that begins during the fifth calendar year following the year in which the children were born, as determined through the birth-attendance rate. For the purposes of this section, children born in a given calendar year will be considered to all begin school in the same enrollment year. For the purposes of this section, the number of children born shall be referred to as births. The augmentation shall be calculated as follows:(1) For current and each of the three previous years of enrollment reported on the Form SAB 50-01, determine the yearly birth-attendance rate by dividing the kindergarten enrollment by the number of births from the fifth preceding calendar year. Add the four yearly birth-attendance rates together and divide by four. The result will be the average birth-attendance rate.(2) The number of births must be as reported by the Department of Health Services by place of residence. A district may utilize one of the following: (A) Births as reported by County.(B) Births as reported by Zip Code. The district must report the ZIP Codes the district or HSAA will serve for the current year and three previous years. If a district serves only a portion of a ZIP Code, and if less than 10 percent of the population of that ZIP Code resides within the portion served by the district, the district must report that ZIP Code, but may choose not to count the births within that ZIP Code for the purposes of this section.(3) Calculate the kindergarten enrollment projection by multiplying the average birth-attendance rate by the number of births five years prior to the applicable projected enrollment year.(4) For years in which the Department of Health Services has not yet reported the number of births, the number of births shall be determined by:(A) Adding the three previous years' number of births and dividing by three.(B) For years in which more than one year of births has not yet been reported, the first birth number shall be calculated per (A), and subsequent years shall be calculated using (A), with the previous averaged births acting as the previous year births.(c) Modified weighting that best represents the enrollment trends of the district to supplant the weighting method used to calculate the average annual change in Section 1859.42(a)(2). The modified weighting shall be calculated as follows: (1) A district choosing to utilize a modified weighting method must submit enrollment data from 14 years immediately prior to those included on the Form SAB 50-01. In total, 18 consecutive years of enrollment must be submitted. Any enrollment information submitted in addition to the Form SAB 50-01 must meet all the requirements as provided for Parts A and C on the Form SAB 50-01.(2) Utilizing the 18 years of enrollment data, calculate three sets of ten historical enrollment projections. These projections cannot be supplemented with (a) and (b) above and are made as follows: (A) For each of the ten enrollment projections determine the numerical change in enrollment utilizing the calculations in Section 1859.42(a)(1), starting with the 14th previous year as the current year, progressing one year for each of the projections with the tenth projection being made with the fifth previous year as the current year. When calculating the ten enrollment projections, the five most recent enrollment years shall not be used.(B) Compute the average annual change for each of the ten projections utilizing the calculations per Section 1859.42(a)(2). Calculate enrollment for each projection year by advancing the enrollment in each grade level through the five-year projection period, modifying the grade progression each year by the average annual change for each grade as computed in this paragraph. This set of ten projections shall be the "1-2-3" projections.(C) Repeat (A) above, but calculate the average annual change by multiplying the most recent annual change in the enrollment by one, the next most recent annual change by two, and the earliest annual change by three, and dividing the sum of the annual weight changes for each grade by six. Calculate enrollment for each projection year by advancing the enrollment in each grade level through the five-year projection period, modifying the grade progression each year by the average annual change for each grade as computed in this paragraph. This set of ten projections shall be the "3-2-1" projections.(D) Repeat (A) above, but calculate the average annual change by dividing the sum of the annual changes for each grade by three. Calculate enrollment for each projection year by advancing the enrollment in each grade level through the five-year projection period, modifying the grade progression each year by the average annual change for each grade as computed in this paragraph. This set of ten projections shall be the "1-1-1" projections.(3) For the ninth previous year through the current year as reported on the Form SAB 50-01 determine the actual enrollment for that year per grade category. For the purposes of this section, grade category shall mean kindergarten through sixth grade, seventh grade through eighth grade, and ninth grade through twelfth grade. Determine the actual enrollment for each grade category by totaling the enrollment from the grades within that grade category,(4) For each of the ten enrollment projections within each of the three projection types, "1-2-3", "3-2-1" and "1-1-1", determine the percentage of accuracy. The percentage of accuracy shall be the projected total enrollment for a grade category minus the actual total enrollment for that grade category five years after divided by the actual grade category total five years later and multiplied by 100, rounded to two significant figures.(5) Calculate the absolute value of the percentage of accuracy as determined in (4) above.(6) Determine the (x,y) coordinate for each percentage of accuracy as determined in (5), with x being the distance from the y-axis and representing time, and y being the distance from the x-axis and representing the percentage of accuracy, as follows:(A) The x coordinate shall be assigned based on 30 enrollment projections made in (2). Projections made with the fourteenth previous year as the current year shall have an x value of one, progressing one year for each of the projections with the tenth projection being made with the fifth previous year as the current year and having an x value of ten.(B) The y coordinate shall be the distance from zero as calculated in (5), above.(7) Using Microsoft Office Excel 2003 or a similar tool, plot each point from (6) onto graphs. Districts must only generate graphs for the grade categories that are reported on the Form SAB 50-01. The points shall be graphed as follows: (A) Graph one shall be all kindergarten through sixth grade comparisons for "1-2-3" projections.(B) Graph two shall be all seventh grade through eighth grade comparisons for "1-2-3" projections.(C) Graph three shall be all ninth grade through twelfth grade comparisons for "1-2-3" projections.(D) Graph four shall be all kindergarten through sixth grade comparisons for "3-2-1" projections.(E) Graph five shall be all seventh grade through eighth grade comparisons for "3-2-1" projections.(F) Graph six shall be all ninth grade through twelfth grade comparisons for "3-2-1" projections.(G) Graph seven shall be all kindergarten through sixth grade comparisons for "1-1-1" projections.(H) Graph eight shall be all seventh grade through eighth grade comparisons for "1-1-1" projections.(I) Graph nine shall be all ninth grade through twelfth grade comparisons for "1-1-1" projections.(8) For each of the graphs in (7), using Microsoft Office Excel 2003 or a similar tool, determine the Linear Regression equation.(9) For each projection type, "1-2-3", "3-2-1" and "1-1-1", determine the average Linear Regression equation:(A) Each equation shall be in the format y= (m * x) + b, where m is the slope and b is the y-axis intercept.(B) Determine the average m for each projection type by adding the m's together and dividing by the number of m's. The number should be one to three and equal to the number of grade categories a district reports on the Form SAB 50-01.(C) Determine the average b for each projection type by adding the b's together and dividing by the number of b's. The number should be one to three and equal to the number of grade categories a district reports on the Form SAB 50-01.(D) Generate the average Linear Regression equation as show in (A) above, for each projection type by creating three new equations using the average m and b from (B) and (C) above.(10) Determine the modified weighting that best represents the trends of the district by:(A) Calculate the three average Linear Regression equations by replacing the x variable with 15.(B) Determine the absolute value of y for the three results(C) The projection type with the result closest to zero, or the smallest number, shall be the modified weighting method that best represents the trends of the district. For the purposes of (c), this shall be the weighting method used when determining the district's projection in Section 1859.42(a)(2).(11) Additionally, a district may propose a fourth weighting method for consideration. The alternative weights shall be only positive whole numbers. The district must follow steps (2) through (10) in this Section using the proposed additional alternative weighting method and determine that the result of (10) is closer to zero than any of the three projection types, "1-2-3", "3-2-1" and "1-1-1".Cal. Code Regs. Tit. 2, § 1859.42.1
1. New section filed 10-21-2008; operative 10-21-2008 pursuant to Government Code section 11343.4 (Register 2008, No. 43). Note: Authority cited: Section 17070.35, Education Code. Reference: Sections 17071.75 and 17071.76, Education Code.
1. New section filed 10-21-2008; operative 10-21-2008 pursuant to Government Code section 11343.4 (Register 2008, No. 43).