Cal. Code Regs. tit. 2 § 1859.42

Current through Register 2024 Notice Reg. No. 49, December 6, 2024

Section 1859.42 - Projecting Non-Special Day Class Enrollment

The district enrollment, as reported on the Form SAB 50-01, shall be used to calculate the district's projected enrollment other than Special Day Class enrollment. The OPSC shall use either (a) or (b) to determine the district's projected enrollment:

(a) Fifth-year projected enrollment with the exception of Special Day Class enrollment shall be calculated pursuant to the cohort survival enrollment projection system which is described as follows:

(1) For all grades, using the current and three previous years of enrollment, determine the numerical change in enrollment between the current grade and the next lower grade in the previous year; determine the numerical change in enrollment between the previous year grade and the next lower grade in the second previous year; determine the numerical change in enrollment between the second previous year grade and the next lower grade in the third previous year. Determine the numerical change of kindergarten enrollment on the second previous and third previous year respectively. A district utilizing a fifth-year enrollment projection may calculate the kindergarten enrollment projection in accordance with Section 1859.42.1(b).

(2) Compute the annual change in enrollment as explained in (1) for each grade. The annual change shall then be weighted by multiplying the most recent annual change in enrollment by three, the next most recent annual change by two, and the earliest annual change by one, and dividing the sum of the annual weighted changes for each grade by six. The result shall be the average annual change.

(3) Calculate enrollment for each projection year by advancing the enrollment in each grade level through the five-year projection period, modifying the grade progression each year by the average annual change for each grade as computed in (2).

(b) Tenth-year projected enrollment with the exception of Special Day Class enrollment shall be calculated pursuant to the cohort survival enrollment projection system which is described as follows:

(1) For all grades, using the current and seven previous years of enrollment, determine the numerical change in enrollment between:

(A) The current grade and the next lower grade in the first previous year;

(B) The first previous year grade and the next lower grade in the second previous year;

(C) The second previous year grade and the next lower grade in the third previous year;

(D) The third previous year grade and the next lower grade in the fourth previous year;

(E) The fourth previous year grade and the next lower grade in the fifth previous year;

(F) The fifth previous year grade and the next lower grade in the sixth previous year;

(G) The sixth previous year grade and the next lower grade in the seventh previous year;

(H) Determine the numerical change of kindergarten enrollment using the previous year's kindergarten enrollment in place of the next lower grade in the previous year for each step in (A) through (G), respectively.

(2) Compute the annual change in enrollment as explained in (1) for each grade. The annual change shall then be weighted by multiplying the most recent annual change in enrollment by seven, the next most recent annual change by six, the next most recent annual change by five, the next most recent annual change by four, the next most recent annual change by three, the next most recent annual change by two, and the earliest annual change by one, and dividing the sum of the annual weighted changes for each grade by 28. The result shall be the average annual change.

(3) Calculate enrollment for each projection year by advancing the latest enrollment in each grade through the ten-year projection period, modifying the grade progression each year by the average annual change for each grade as computed in (2).

(c) The projected enrollment of a HSAA or Super HSAA shall be computed in the same manner as that set forth in this section, except that the enrollment used in such computation shall be that of the HSAA or Super HSAA rather than the entire district.

Cal. Code Regs. Tit. 2, § 1859.42

1. New section filed 12-3-98 as an emergency; operative 12-3-98 (Register 98, No. 49). A Certificate of Compliance must be transmitted to OAL by 4-2-99 or emergency language will be repealed by operation of law on the following day.
2. New section refiled 3-31-99 as an emergency; operative 3-31-99 (Register 99, No. 14). A Certificate of Compliance must be transmitted to OAL by 7-29-99 or emergency language will be repealed by operation of law on the following day.
3. New section refiled 7-29-99 as an emergency; operative 7-29-99 (Register 99, No. 31). A Certificate of Compliance must be transmitted to OAL by 11-26-99 or emergency language will be repealed by operation of law on the following day.
4. Certificate of Compliance as to 7-29-99 order, including amendment of section, transmitted to OAL 8-26-99 and filed 10-8-99 (Register 99, No. 41).
5. Amendment of first paragraph and subsections (b), (b)(1) and (b)(4) filed 6-26-2000; operative 6-26-2000 pursuant to Government Code section 11343.4(d) (Register 2000, No. 26).
6. Amendment of first paragraph and subsections (b), (b)(1) and (b)(4) filed 1-2-2001 as an emergency; operative 1-2-2001 (Register 2001, No. 1). A Certificate of Compliance must be transmitted to OAL by 5-2-2001 or emergency language will be repealed by operation of law on the following day.
7. Certificate of Compliance as to 1-2-2001 order transmitted to OAL 5-1-2001 and filed 6-13-2001 (Register 2001, No. 24).
8. Amendment filed 4-10-2002; operative 4-10-2002 pursuant to Government Code section 11343.4 (Register 2002, No. 15).
9. Amendment of first paragraph and subsections (b), (b)(1), (b)(4) and (c) filed 11-4-2002 as an emergency; operative 11-4-2002 (Register 2002, No. 45). Pursuant to Education Code section 17070.35 a Certificate of Compliance must be transmitted to OAL by 11-4-2003 or emergency language will be repealed by operation of law on the following day.
10. Certificate of Compliance as to 11-4-2002 order transmitted to OAL 11-4-2003 and filed 12-19-2003 (Register 2003, No. 51).
11. Amendment of subsections (b) and (b)(4) filed 4-26-2005; operative 4-26-2005 pursuant to Government Code section 11343.4 (Register 2005, No. 17).
12. Amendment filed 10-21-2008; operative 10-21-2008 pursuant to Government Code section 11343.4 (Register 2008, No. 43).

Note: Authority cited: Section 17070.35, Education Code. Reference: Sections 17071.75 and 17071.76, Education Code.