Ga. Comp. R. & Regs. 515-3-4-.03

Current through Rules and Regulations filed through October 17, 2024

Rule 515-3-4-.03 - Energy and Demand Forecasting Requirements

(1) Time Frame of Analysis.

(a) Historic Data. Energy and demand forecasts shall utilize and report historic data from the three years preceding the filing year when such historic data are available.

(b) Forecast period. All energy and demand forecasts shall be performed for each year of the twenty-year period beginning with the filing year.

(2) Contents of Energy and Demand Forecasts.

(a) Characteristics. The forecasts specified below shall be weather normalized. The methodologies and processes used to normalize for weather shall be fully described and justifiable.

(b) The load forecast shall include and report the following items for each historic and forecast years including: first, the jurisdictional portion of each utility; second, the utility including sales to Georgia partial requirements and full requirements wholesale, if applicable; and third, the utility including all Georgia retail and wholesale loads for which the utility has planning responsibility, if applicable:

1. The total annual energy consumption for electricity for the utility and for each of the utility's customer classes;

2. The total monthly energy consumption for the utility and for each of the utility's aggregate customer classes, for the most recent three years of history and the first three years of the forecast period;

3. The summer, winter and annual peak demands for each of the customer classes;

4. The monthly coincident and non-coincident peak demands for each of the customer classes, for the most recent three years of history and the first three years of the forecast period;

5. Annual load factor; and

6. Edison Electric Institute load data for the most recent three years, supplied both in hard copy and on a computer disk in ASCII format.

(c) Analysis and Documentation of Peak Demand and Energy Forecasts. The Forecast documentation shall be the utility's standard forecast documentation which outlines the rationale and pertinent factors used for the utility's own planning purposes. The historic data and forecast of peak demand and energy usage shall include, and shall separately identify and describe the impact on peak demand and energy usage of the following load requirements and resources:

1. Utility demand-side programs which were implemented before preparing the plan under consideration;

2. Existing government-sponsored or mandated demand-side programs;

3. Price-induced substitution of alternative fuels for electricity and vice versa;

4. Actual and expected interruptible demand, including number of customers and firm capacity contracted for interruption from each customer, and, for historic years, the amount of interruptible demand which was actually interrupted;

5. Self-generation and cogeneration by existing and future customers, including the number of customers with such capacity, their total capacity rating and, where applicable, the capacity and energy they are contracted to provide; and

6. Transmission and distribution losses.

(d) Evaluation of Previous Forecasts. Each utility plan shall contain an evaluation of the previous forecast. The evaluation must assess the accuracy of the previous forecast(s), attempt to explain the deviation between forecasted and actual energy and demand, and describe revisions to subsequent methodologies and assumptions utilized to correct for potential deviations, as appropriate.

(3) Forecasting Methodology.

(a) Forecasting Methodology and Determinants. Utility forecasts used in the integrated resource plan filing shall be based on desegregated end-use methods or some other comparable forecasting methodology. The forecast of energy and demand shall identify and describe the significant determinants used in forecasting future peak demand and energy usage. In addition to end-use specifications, each forecast should address the following factors influencing peak demand and energy usage, where appropriate:

1. Demographics, including population, number of households, household type (e.g., single versus multi-family), employment, and income;

2. Economic conditions, including gross product of the service area;

3. Price of electricity and price elasticity of demand for electricity;

4. The substitution of electricity for and with competing fuels in end-uses, including the rates of penetration and saturation of the market of those end-uses;

5. The future price of competing end-use fuels;

6. Behavioral factors which affect energy use by customers;

7. Energy policies of the state and federal government affecting energy use, both existing and reasonably anticipated; and

8. Any other factors deemed relevant.

(b) Each utility energy and demand forecast shall include detailed descriptions of the source of all determinants upon which it relies and shall document and fully justify the procedure by which the determinants were incorporated into the peak demand and energy usage forecasts. The determinants used in forecasting energy and demand must be consistent with and integrated into the different components of the forecast;

(c) Data Requirements. Utility energy and demand forecasts shall be based on the best available data. Where reliable data are not available, estimates should be used and justified. Each utility shall develop a data base of electricity consumption patterns by customer class and by end-use where applicable (e.g., classes for which end-use data have been collected within the most recent five years). When using end-use forecasting methodologies, each utility shall submit the most current data available on end-use appliance penetration and saturation rates and end-use electricity consumption patterns. Each forecast shall include a detailed description of data used in making the forecast, an identification of the sources of such data, and a detailed explanation of specific techniques employed for gathering, organizing, adjusting, or interpreting the data;

(d) Econometric Forecasting Methods. Where statistical or econometric methods are used in developing forecast inputs or in the forecasting process, analyses of the reasonableness of such methods and models shall be presented, including computer outputs with parameter estimates; and

(e) Load research. Each utility shall identify and describe ongoing and planned load research.

(4) Sensitivity Analyses and Contingency Planning.

(a) Sensitivity to Major Assumptions. The energy and demand forecast shall include an analysis of the sensitivity of results to the major assumptions and estimates used in preparing the forecasts.

(b) Sensitivity Planning. Each utility plan must contain a series of demand forecasts sensitivities which represents a reasonable range of electricity sales and demand which its system may be required to serve. The range must include three levels of expected growth based on alternative assumptions of demand determinants, as follows:

1. A base case scenario should be developed, which incorporates all assumptions that are likely to occur. This case shall be used to project revenue requirements, avoided costs, ceiling prices, and resource blocks;

2. A high growth scenario; and

3. A low growth scenario.

Ga. Comp. R. & Regs. R. 515-3-4-.03

Ga. L. 1878-79 p. 125; 1907, pp. 72-81; 1922 pp. 142-147; 1975 pp. 404-412; 1991 pp. 1696-1705.

Original Rule entitled "Energy and Demand Forecasting Requirements" adopted. F. Dec. 10, 1991, eff. Dec. 30, 1991.

Amended: F. Oct. 27, 1997; eff. Nov. 16, 1997.